A couple of us were interviewed recently by a key industry publication to discuss what the world of e-commerce had in store in the coming 5-10 years. We talked about some pretty “out there” stuff, which I’ll be exploring more in future posts. But while that part of the discussion may have been the most fun, it strikes me that when you look at the early part of that 5-10 year window, things may not be as radically different as you’d expect. In fact, almost all the pieces of innovation that will lead e-commerce in the next 5 years are visible today. In the next half-decade, they will simply become practical, reliable and widely deployed. Consider:

  • The single biggest opportunity facing e-commerce is what Chris Anderson calls the Long Tail - the Web gives merchants a way to sell a wider variety of products to more people in more niches (I’ve talked about this before)
  • The challenge is discovery - helping buyers find what they want. The more choice, the more potential for shopping gridlock
  • The solution will be the seemingly oxymoronic combination of personalization and the Web 2.0 concept of the wisdom of crowds. Buyers want to be shown offers that are relevant to their own individual needs and tastes - the more relevant the offer, the higher the conversion rate and the bigger the basket size. But deciding what offer may be most relevant to an individual may be best gleaned by examining the behavior and opinions of other people like them

The technology to enable all of this is largely available today (ATG has been a personalization expert for years, user opionions and reviews flourish, there’s no end to social networking/bookmarking/media/callitwhatyoulike services available). What we’re going to see in the next 5 years is online sellers sorting through what to adopt and how best to integrate it and build unique features with it.

Then it really gets fun…

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